HERE IS A COPY OF MY SUBMISSION TO CEPEC/NEPEC FOLLOWED BY THIS WEEKS UPDATE:
June 6, 2010
The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council
The National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council
OFFICIAL PREDICTION FOR A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE TO STRIKE
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BEFORE JULY 15, 2010
In my studies I have come across many references to the work of the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council and want to start by noting that my submissions to these official prediction people are by no means the scientific journals with complete descriptions of stress in the rocks and chronological gaps that might exist in the effected areas and etc. Yesterday I read an account about the famous Brady-Spence prediction of 1980 and 1981 and how it received a complete review with then Chairman of NEPEC, Clarence Allen chairing a big inquisition. It may be noteworthy that their prediction was ultimately determined not to be, “A logical extension of commonly accepted understanding and knowledge.”
My own EQ Alert Theory is nowhere near as complex as the type of prediction that may be submitted by advanced seismology teams such as Brady and Spence, I mostly submit to CEPEC and NEPEC for the purpose of later referencing the fact that this information actually existed prior to the earthquake happening, or so that it is officially a prediction and not a “postdiction,” the word they use to describe guys who come along later after an earthquake and try to say that they predicted it. I have actually had guys say that it is easy to change blog entries by editing them, so this way it is at least on file somewhere more official, having been submitted to the councils via E-mail.
I want to begin by saying that when I checked the exact direction of the earthquake energy from the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Phet at Oman on June 3, the initial line led directly to an area just south of San Francisco, which I thought was like San Jose, but I now want to add the name Silicone Valley like to better define the area. The line also traverses the Hayward Fault and actually tracks very near Oakland, and does not actually physically cross San Francisco, so I added Bay Area to the name.
I have long ago correlated major earthquakes as immediately following the landfall of major hurricanes and typhoons and in the years since then have discovered that earthquakes usually follow in a straight line around the globe from the exact direction the big windstorm was traveling when it made landfall and did damage. A great example is Hurricane Hugo at Charleston, SC and the Loma Prieta earthquake 18 days later at San Francisco. That line practically crossed right over Frisco. One of my best was Hurricane Katrina/Islamabad Earthquake, which also involved the landfall of Typhoon Longwang whose earthquake energy also headed directly for Islamabad and actually crossed the energy from Katrina at that point. This is actually a much longer winded story that I won’t include all of here.
Tropical Cyclone Phet is reported to have killed 16 people in Oman, of course deaths are not exactly a scientific indication of strength of a windstorm, they do tell me something happened over there, versus, nothing. Wind speed was reported at 97 mph at landfall and while Phet had been a Category 4, it is possible that the decrease in wind speed might also contribute to potential seismic energy, having been decreased by contact of outer bands with the terra firma. It was noted that the Port of Mina-al-Fahal was not damaged, and this would become a factor in ultimately coming to know that this WAS NOT as big of a wind storm as Katrina or Hugo, and is the reason I am today listing my lower estimate as 5.5 Richters and my high number as 6.3 Richters, that is this earthquake should be between 5.5 and 6.3 Richters Magnitude. Further, the lack of damage being reported could mean a lack of damage from this earthquake when it does strike, since I like to say small hurricane equals small earthquake, medium hurricane equals medium earthquake, etc. However note that it will be possible that this earthquake energy could release energy that exists around the Silicone Valley or Hayward Fault and is waiting for something to shake it loose and release it. This might be what happened recently in Chile, but seems like kind of a long shot that it could happen in Frisco during June of 2010 and I neither wish to assert that it could happen, nor predict that it could. Let’s think smallish shaker, here.
This earthquake will first have to cross Eastern Iran and Tehran, and I stated in an early alert Grozny and Pakistan, who just had a 5.0 Richters shaker yesterday. Seattle, and Mount Saint Helens are very close to this line as well as Eureka and the Triple Plate Junction which could react to this earthquake energy within this window as well. But my primary focus today is Oakland, San Francisco, Cupertino, Santa Clara, Pleasanton, San Jose, and Los Gatos. This is not to say that Lompoc, Santa Barbara, or Ventura County, etc. will not be affected, it just don’t look like they should worry about getting this earthquake so I won’t include those cities.
My best guess for the exact parameters on this earthquake is June 19, 2010 at 6.0 Richters for Freemont, Milpitas, San Jose as the epicenter judging by exactly where this line will cross and not knowing the fault line situations in that region, these are just the exact towns nearest that line. I notice Alum Rock, and Morgan Hill are almost intersected by this line, but I’m not sure that means anything today. The range of this new upcoming major earthquake should be between 5.5 and 6.3 Richters Magnitude and this alert for Frisco will start running out on Day 30 after Phet, or July 5, and expires Day 40 or July 15 only because 43 days covers all but one or two of these earthquakes that historically follow, and are probably the result of, major windstorms.
That continuing swarm of aftershocks from the recent major earthquake at Baja California, Mexico could also now figure into this new earthquake energy! While I haven’t actually heard any discussion about the direction these tectonic plates are moving, or exactly what is going on with this extensive movement that seems to be taking place down there, I want to guess it means a major movement of the North American Tectonic Plate against the Pacific Tectonic Plate. I am mentioning this right now mostly because it might indicate that there could be seismic energy built up or building up around the San Francisco Bay area as a result of this seismic activity. Absent precision measuring equipment such as we use in the mechanical industries, or access to those GPS measurements that somebody’s taking via satellite, I can only guess that earthquake energy is building up somewhere.
A series of tornadoes struck Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania last night and has left behind significant damage. This will now also be the cause of some new earthquake energy of between 5.5 and 6.5 Richters for Las Vegas, Los Angeles, or I suppose possibly as far north as S.F. Bay, again. That scenario will have to be submitted in its entirety on a separate O.P. at a later date. Although right here and now if I apply it to this Official Prediction, then you have Tropical Cyclone Phet at Omar, the upwards of ten thousand Richters of continuing earthquakes at Baja California, and the resulting potential seismic energy from the Illinois/Ohio/Pennsylvania Tornado all heading directly for the San Francisco Bay area if you will. Regardless of if Phet alone had enough earthquake energy, or how much damage the tornado did, or where exactly the Baja California energy is heading, today it all seems to be falling directly on the shoulders of the State of California and the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council as a result!!!
So, be watching for this next major earthquake and you might remember the January 9, 2010 Eureka earthquake struck directly under my December 22, 2009 Official Prediction and that the now great Haiti earthquake struck at 4pm on the final day of that window, or January 12, 2010, and this Official Prediction should be considered to be worthy of comparison.
Thank-You for taking the time to read and hopefully accept this Official Prediction.
Respectfully, EQ Guy, (just now took my real name out:)
AND HERE IS THE UPDATE, NOTE THAT THERE WAS ALSO THAT LOS ANGELES O.P FILED SEPERATELY A FEW DAYS AFTER THE ABOVE, BUT THAT ONE IS PAST:
July 8, 2010
To: CEPEC, NEPEC
From: Les Brown
This letter is an update to my recent E-Mail that discussed a possible earthquake in Mexico with a chance for California. Today I want to note that I did some quick research in an effort to provide actual numbers supporting those statements and in checking back through Hurricanes that made identical landfalls to Alex during the 1960’s, 1970’s, 1980’s, 1990’s, and 2000-2010, I did not find any major earthquakes striking Mexico, of course there could have been some that did not show up in my brief scan. What I did find was several that struck California, one that struck Idaho, one in Minnesota, and one in Maryland. Then major ones around the Indian Ocean/Australian Tectonic Plate which is out in the general direction that the bulk of this earthquake energy will always travel once it crosses to the Pacific Tectonic Plate. This letter deals exclusively with the fact that I did track the landfall of several westbound hurricanes at Mexico and found California to be effected somewhat.
There is also presently an Official Prediction for the San Francisco Bay Area that will run until around July 15, 2010 for San Jose, Milpitas, and Fremont at 6 Richters, but this potential earthquake energy will probably not combine with the earthquake energy from Hurricane Alex and should stay focused on the Bay Area. The energy from Hurricane Alex will probably NOT focus directly on Frisco, rather it seems more likely to strike and shake a much broader region such as my findings above showed, or Idaho, Minnesota, or Maryland. I suppose Illinois, Missouri, and the Yellowstone Region might watch out for this 7 Magnitude earthquake as well. I will continue this paragraph since this runs along that line and that is the fact that we do not seem to have the open line of communication with the people living in those areas that Weather Central people afford themselves. I have come to the realization that this may be in part due to the fact that teachings picked up by Geology and Seismology Professionals do not consist of a lot of Public Information education because none of these experts seem to have much of an idea about how to announce earthquakes. On the contrary Weather People announce all sorts of different weather information on a daily basis and it makes it seem obvious that they are well educated and probably especially taught all about how to interrupt the lives of people to announce things like Tornadoes, Hurricanes, and even simple stuff like Thunder, and Lightening. It is starting to appear that Seismology, Geology, CEPEC, NEPEC, and other earthquake hazard mitigation people apparently DO NOT know quite so much about how to do just that. In the meantime we could fairly easily consult with the weather people by phoning Weather Central, or in the case of Geology at UW-Madison, walking across the plaza to Meteorology and simply asking. “Hey, how do you get up the nerve to go on-camera and always tell people tornadoes are heading for them” is about all you need to ask them, or what additional special classes they are taught to so deeply affect peoples daily lives, since this is a far different subject from reading maps, etc. This due to yet another of my recent Official Predictions actually ending up being almost the exact spot at the exact moment that I had an alert for. The Borrego Springs area of Southern California is an area that I know well, having worked at the Sony Plant in Rancho Bernardo and worked with guys from Escondido and Yuccaipa, I’ve toured that region many times and Aquanga, Idyllwild, Sultan Sea, Palm Springs, etc. are some of my favorite places. While I had stated Whittier, and La Puente to measure off, I now must say I could hardly have been more than like about 20 or 30 miles off and I had just posted an alert update yesterday morning for L.A. Also, yesterday I examined the tornado damage at Eagle, Wisconsin and double-checked their local papers at one of the local libraries over that way to find only a few homes actually destroyed and albeit a lot of minor damage and quite a number of trees broken off and uprooted. There was also a recent report that 2000 trees, many of which may have been 40 foot pines, are gone from around the Old World Wisconsin area which also suffered much damage. On that note in the moments before last nights 5.4 Richters Borrego Springs earthquake it was possible that we could have lowered the magnitude of the Los Angeles, Whittier, La Puente prediction, but that earthquake struck only a couple hours after I arrived home from that tour.
In summation, this is a reminder that there is still a minor alert for San Francisco Bay Area at 6 Richters, and now a new alert for all of California, Idaho, etc. for 7 Richters and I suppose there is a slight chance that Frisco could also be eligible for the 7 Richters Alex resultant, but it does not seem highly likely, rather I’d be watching those other areas. Additionally, I must add here in the event that anybody actually reads my writing all the way this far into it which seems unlikely, I must add that the energy of Hurricane Alex has already shown signs of a medium sized movement of the Indian Ocean/Australian Tectonic Plate and that I have followed this movement on several other occasions and this variety of tectonic plate movement will push straight up along that longitudinal line with California at the other side of the Arctic Tectonic Plate which has now many time passed the earthquake energies faithfully, again indicating California in a manner similar to how Hurricane Ivans energy traveled to the scene of the Parkfield Earthquake in September of 2004.
Finally, I want to note there is also now a small Tropical Depression, or T.D.-2, at South Padre Island, Texas that could possibly be sending yet more energy towards the California-Mexico Border area but will be so small that I will not file any special O.P. with CEPEC. It could result in one more 5.1 Richters earthquake around Poway, El Cajon, Santee on about the evening of July 13 at 5:58pm local time there for the record. The councils might make a note that my last several have been very accurate and that mathematically I believe I have more than proved this to be because I know what I am doing here and ask that my EQ Alert Theory be accepted and that all the information in this letter be considered to be the result of good Earthquake Mechanics work.
Thank-You, again, Sirs!!!
Event Security for the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
EXHIBIT A-My Curriculum Vitae:
I attended school in my hometown in Wisconsin, and went on to receive my General Education Diploma from Blackhawk Tech in October 1981, later attending TV Actors Studio in Chicago where I received a diploma from their Commercials One and Two course in early 1989. Throughout the 1990’s I worked as a Background Actor in Chicago Film Production acclimating to Feature Roles and Bit Parts and joining the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists or AFTRA, as well as going on to begin an Apprenticeship with the United Brotherhood of Carpenters in 1996 and heading to Los Angeles in 1999 when work ran out in Wisconsin. There I moved my AFTRA card and worked for Central Casting at the studios out there as well as moved my apprenticeship to work with the Southern California Millwrights local #1607 on a number of jobs out there having also worked on a lot of movies and television productions during this time as well. My California Apprenticeship was actually an Indenturement approved through Sacramento and affiliated with Santa Ana College in Santa Ana, California where I still have transcripts on file, there. I was also in one or two pretty big earthquakes including the Hector Mines earthquake during my time in Southern California. In January of 2003 I moved my carpenters union card back to Milwaukee by taking and passing their Journeymans Test and thereby completing my apprenticeship, albeit without going the graduation route. Next, I began studying earthquakes by reading books from the local libraries including the Geology Library at UW-Madison. This led to me polishing my knowledge of earthquakes that began the day of the Northridge Quake when I immediately researched the things that happened in the days leading up to that huge earthquake. My studies went right into my first book originally completed around December 2003 at the time of the Paso Robles, and Bam Iran earthquakes. I updated this in early 2005 after I had a particularly good alert out prior to the Great Sumatra Earthquake of December 2004. This new version of my first book “How To Predict Earthquakes” was represented by a literary agent buy did not find a publisher. Nor did a “Compact Edition” that I shopped to publishers myself through 2007. As of Spring of 2010, I have now completed my latest earthquake book “My Earthquake Memoirs” and am currently in the process of submitting queries to Literary Agents on that new project. Never married I currently reside at Moms house on Lake Koshkonong in Wisconsin where I watch Hurricanes, Typhoon, windstorms in general and earthquakes very closely on a daily basis and I write an EQ Blog that is producing my first pay-check any day now. In August 2008 I was hired by Per-Mar Security in Madison, Wisconsin as an Event Security person for Wisconsin Badgers Football, Basketball, Hockey, Track Meets, and etc. and am currently employed there. There has also been a streak of Film Production in Chicago and so I have been doing a lot of acting in movies and TV Shows shooting in Chicago this year having just received one check today for my work on the new Ron Howard movie shot in recent weeks where I was in an actual bar fight with paper cups during rehearsal and real glass bottles breaking when the cameras roll. Primarily working for Atmosphere Casting Chicago, Jon Kinnas. I hope to move up the ladder in the Security Business with my sights set on the much higher paying security jobs at Nuclear Plants possibly being somewhere out there in my future and full-well knowing my acting (and some script writing, I got a small credit at the end of two major movies) will pay off for me some day, as well. I also take my work with earthquakes very seriously as well and will continue my study of earthquakes and my earthquake writing at the same time as I continue with Security and Film Production!!! Thank-You!!! LES